Expert discusses health consequences of global warming

By: Kelsey Gibbons

Posted: 2/23/07

On Feb. 20, Michael McGeehin of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gave a lecture entitled "Climate Change and Human Health: Potential Consequences for the U.S. Population."

The lecture was part of the Great Works Symposium's global warming class. McGeehin first cautioned students to make their own assessments of climate change data, because the projections are based solely on models.

"The reason I'm not a big fan of models is that there is no way that a mathematical equation, no matter how complex, and no matter how many factors or variables are in it, can possibly account for reality," he said. "At best, at the very best, it gives us scenarios that might be considered possibly likely."

He emphasized, however, that using models to project climate change effects is far better that waiting to see what happens. The growing trend toward increased emergency preparation is proving him correct. According to McGeehin, groups such as the World Health Organization have recently been calling upon his services to develop plans aimed at lessening the health impacts of global climate change. Climate-related events, such as Europe's severe heat wave in 2003, which killed 35,000 people, have increased the need for such disaster preparedness plans.

Among the many health-related consequences of global warming, McGeehin spent time talking specifically about heat waves, flooding, hurricanes, and the spread of infectious diseases. He explained that from a public health standpoint, global warming must be approached through adaptation, not mitigation. The difference is that adaptation takes measures to prevent against global climate change by anticipating it, while mitigation takes measures to limit global climate change and undesirable impacts by decreasing carbon emissions.

Therefore, according to McGeehin, the adaptations taken to avoid these issues vary by the standard of living. There will be a doubling in heat waves, which will be greater in intensity and duration worldwide. This will cause problems, especially in urban areas, with the elderly and impoverished. There will also be changes in precipitation and drought, along with the possibility of more severe tropical cycles and hurricanes.

McGeehin emphasized that as a nation, we need to prepare for these possibilities, and we need to adapt to prepare. On a more worldwide scale, the spread of vector-borne illnesses, such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue fever and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome.

The standard of living in the United States creates a small safety net for the country. Luxuries such as screens and glass on windows, and few stagnant bodies of water make these diseases less of concern to those in America. Additionally, the presence of antibiotics combats illness.

However, an increase in these diseases will be especially crippling to those with compromised immune systems, such as cancer or AIDS patients, or those living in developing nations. McGeehin also pointed out that many storm water and sewer systems are linked, leading to the contamination of drinking water further downstream.

McGeehin offered valuable adaptations to these problems, including emergency preparation and planning, advanced warning systems, better urban planning, and the presence of a public health infrastructure. It remains, however, that the CDC does not make policy; it only issues recommendations to citizens and governmental agencies. McGeehin said that the CDC frequently sends warnings to be issued by local governments, but citizens often ignore these cautions.